WASHINGTON, DC – Two of the nation’s leading experts on American politics and American public opinion appeared before a breakfast discussion of The Ripon Society this past Tuesday morning, where they shared their thoughts on the changing face of the electorate, the increasingly negative view of Congress, and the factors that will matter most in the Presidential election of 2016.
The experts were Ed Goeas, the President & CEO of the Tarrance Group who also serves as a senior advisor to Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Carroll Doherty, the Director of Political Research at the Pew Research Center who opened his presentation — and the discussion – with an overview of the demographic shift that has taken place in the country over the past several years.
“It has been a remarkable change,” Doherty stated, in reference to this shift. “We’ve gone from a country that’s 87 percent white, non-Hispanic to a country that’s 65 percent white, non-Hispanic. By 2060, we could very well be a majority-minority nation. This has had an impact on the electorate. In every election since 1992, the percentage of white, non-Hispanics has ticked down. Look at what happened to Mitt Romney in 2012. He won the white vote by 20 points – 59 percent to 39 percent. That’s better than George W. Bush, and it’s the same percentage of the white vote that George H.W Bush won in 1988. And yet Romney was defeated, in part due to the changing demographic composition of the nation.”
“At this time of great demographic change, Republicans remain overwhelmingly white, while Democrats are becoming more diverse. What does that mean? In my business, a lot of analysts are saying that demographics are destiny. I reject that. I don’t think we know what this means for 2016. I think we know the Republican Party faces a big challenge going forward – there’s no question about that. The demographics are not favorable. But there are so many wildcards and variables, that it’s a little hard to predict with any certainty what this might mean. For example, turnout is very unpredictable. We’ve had two elections with an extraordinarily high African American turnout. We’re not likely to have an African American at the top of the ticket in 2016. That may affect turnout. The Hispanic vote, seemingly locked in for the Democrats in 2012, is very unpredictable and has varied widely over the last several elections.”
One thing that has become predictable, Doherty noted, is Congress, which, with all the changes happening around the country, is being viewed by the public with growing disdain.
“To no one’s surprise, people are not very happy with Congress,” he said. “But it really is extraordinary the degree to which their favorability keeps going down. It’s now down to 22 percent. And it’s a bipartisan phenomenon. Republicans, Democrats, and Independents – nobody seems to like Congress, and nobody seems to like the Congressional leaders of either party.” Doherty added that the first 100 days of the 104th Congress in 1995 represented something of a high water mark for public perception of the Legislative Branch, and it’s been downhill from there.
“Eighty percent of Republicans said the GOP was keeping its promises, while 78 percent approved of the party’s leaders in Congress,” he said of the ’95 poll numbers. “For every victorious party since then, the share of partisans who give their party high marks has gone down. There’s a long-term decline. Now you see Republicans rating their own party very low – just 37 percent say the Republican Party is keeping its promises, with 41 percent approving of GOP leaders. What’s going on? I think there is a dangerous erosion in the view of Congress. The institution itself is being viewed more negatively than ever before across party lines.”
Goeas followed Doherty to the podium and focused his remarks on the Presidential election of 2016.
“The election in 2016 is going to be about two things,” the veteran strategist declared. “First, it is truly going to be a battle over the middle class. The middle class is our target. The middle class is, by definition, 70 percent of the electorate. When we talk about the African American vote and when we talk about the Hispanic vote, the key to winning these votes is not approaching them as Hispanics or African Americans, but rather approaching them as middle class voters – as hardworking taxpayers. The middle class believes that the rich get their benefits and the poor get their programs, and they get stuck with the bill. And they’re tired of it.
“The other thing this election is going to be about is the future. Presidential elections are always about the future. We are in our most vulnerable time period between now and the August recess because the focus is on what’s happening here in Congress. But I guarantee you, as of August, when the first debate occurs, that will be the last you’ll hear about Congress until the November election in 2016. All the focus will be on the future. All the focus will be on the Presidential race. All the focus will be on the direction we’re going as a country.”
To that end, Goeas pointed to three factors he believes will be critical in the upcoming campaign. “Concern over the economy is the highest I’ve ever seen. Seventy-two percent of the American public now says they are concerned about a downturn in the economy. On foreign affairs, ISIS has permeated the mindset of our country. We asked people, ‘Do you believe you or your family member will ever be a target of a terrorist attack?’ Only 26 percent of Americans said, ‘No, they will not be,’ which shows how much this issue has permeated the psyche of the American public.
According to Goeas, the last issue that will be a factor in the election pertains to the American Dream. “It’s a question we’ve been asking since Reagan – ‘Do you believe the next generation will do as well financially?’ I remember in the Reagan Administration, we changed and modified some of our messaging the first time the number fell below 50 percent. Today, 69 percent say the next generation will not be better.”
Goeas concluded by discussing one other factor that he believes will be critical to the Presidential race – namely, how the Presidential nominee is viewed. “One of the most interesting things I’ve seen for Republicans is we’ve asked what do you prefer in a presidential nominee – do you want someone whose views match your own, or do you want someone who’s effective in getting things done. In the past, the Democrats always focused on effectiveness, while Republicans always focused on having someone who matched their views. Today, 57 percent of Americans want someone who is effective, while only 35 percent want someone who reflects their views, and Republicans are now no different than the rest of the electorate in that regard.”
“I believe one of the reasons you’re seeing Governors do better is the effectiveness argument. Governors have a proven record. The problem with Senators is there’s not a lot you can point to and say, ‘I single-handedly did this.’ I also think Governors have a leg-up from the standpoint that at least three of the four Senators are freshmen. One of the things that happens when people get buyer’s remorse is they don’t go ahead and buy the same thing the next time around. I think that’s going to be a very difficult thing for the freshman Senators.”
Following their remarks, Doherty and Goeas took questions from the audience, where they discussed a number of other issues related to the American electorate, including the role of Millennials and why next year’s election may be critical to their voting behavior – and voting loyalties — down the road.
“We’ve done a lot of research over the years that suggests that when you came of age, the President who was there when you were coming of age really matters for your long term voting future,” Doherty stated. “Some suggest that these younger Millennials are a little less Democratic now, and that may be a reaction to the bad times at the end of the Obama era in the same way that some of the bad times at the end of the Bush era affected older Millennials. It will be interesting to see.”
Goeas agreed.
“Carroll is exactly right,” he said. “Our testing over the years has shown that if you vote for the same party in your first three presidential elections, you lock-in for the rest of your lifetime. So this is a very important election from that standpoint. What we’ve been watching for with regard to Millennials is that as you get married, as you have children, as you buy a home, as you become more connected in your community, you become more conservative. The problem for Millennials is that all those processes have been delayed over the years … They were kind of caught up in the Obama part of the equation. They expected there to be jobs for them immediately. There weren’t jobs so they went back to graduate school. They came out of graduate school expecting not only to have a job, but to have an even better job than what they were hoping for the last time. And the jobs are not there. That’s not good for them. That goes back to that hope for the next generation doing better.
“I think someone can tap into that, and it’s one thing I hope for as a Republican. Every new President gets a pop with young voters. And so it’s not necessarily what we do with Millennials this election, as much if we win this election. Then you’re going to see our support amongst Millennials pop, because it happens with every President. I was a part of the Ronald Reagan pop that occurred. You’re going to see it. We have to win the White House, though.”
To view the complete remarks of Doherty and Goeas before The Ripon Society’s breakfast discussion Tuesday morning, please click on the link below:
The Ripon Society is a public policy organization that was founded in 1962 and takes its name from the town where the Republican Party was born in 1854 – Ripon, Wisconsin. One of the main goals of The Ripon Society is to promote the ideas and principles that have made America great and contributed to the GOP’s success. These ideas include keeping our nation secure, keeping taxes low and having a federal government that is smaller, smarter and more accountable to the people.