With just months until the 2024 presidential election, data trends provide us with further proof that a huge shift is occurring across America’s political constituencies. It’s clear this realignment will be firmly cemented in our national politics and that both parties have been slow to match their policymaking with the political preferences of their respective bases.
It’s no secret that working-class voters now gravitate toward the Republican Party, whereas the educated and more well-off are now the bedrock of today’s Democratic Party – but this shift was accelerated with Trump’s entrance into politics. Now, with the potential for Trump to serve one more term in office, it is up to congressional Republicans to get the legislative engines running if they are to win over America’s working-class folks – a key voter group who still hold the keys to the Oval Office and congressional majorities.
2023 was revealed to be Congress’ least productive year in over five decades with the fewest number of bills passed. Add to that an overly dramatized exiling of the House Speaker and threats to oust the current one, it’s hard not to see why Congress has an approval rating of 15%.
Despite this, Republicans have the advantage and the opportunity to deliver for the non-college-educated voters living paycheck-to-paycheck. These are people uninterested in tax cuts for big businesses, the elusive stock market indicators, or wonky policy schemes that don’t translate to a tangible impact on their tight pocketbooks. And it won’t be enough for Trump and his Republican allies to lean on the pre-Covid tax cuts. Things have changed, that ship has sailed, and it’s time for a broader vision.
Republicans need to stop complaining about slim majorities and deliver on the policy front to gain a bigger advantage on the political one.
Republicans’ new voters are most concerned with the here and now of life. They need immediate relief from both the government and the private sector. They need more money in their pockets and flexibility to take care of their families and loved ones. They need congressional representatives that will deliver this, and they want a president strong enough to ensure it gets done.
It can’t get any simpler than that and the data backs it up. For example, in a January national poll, voters were asked if they support or oppose Congress enacting, “national legislation for paid family leave for qualifying reasons like newborn children, medical recovery, and caring for seriously ill loved ones.”
Over 75 percent of people said they supported it. Even more impressive is the broad support from across the political spectrum in an era where it seems like the parties can’t agree on anything.
Encouragingly, two bipartisan working groups in the House and Senate have come up with a policy framework that aims to increase paid leave through a variety of state-based and public-private partnership structures. Nobody expects these solutions to be in place by Election Day, but it would be a huge boon for Republicans if they could pass that kind of legislation to signal to non-college-educated voters that positive change is possible and on the way – especially if they elect a Republican to the White House.
In the current political landscape, Democrats arguably have more to gain than Republicans, but it’s the GOP that has the momentum with this key voter group. With Trump solidifying his victory in the Republican primary, now is the time to pivot from the policies they focused on for decades being the party of the upper class and refocus on things that make life better for the working-class – like paid family leave.
This election is too close for policymaking not to keep pace with the electoral environment. Republicans need to stop complaining about slim majorities and deliver on the policy front to gain a bigger advantage on the political one. If they can do that, voters may reward them again.
Brent Buchanan is a pollster and president of Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate Republican polling firm.