Ripon Forum


Vol. 51, No. 3

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In this edition

Earlier this year, I was having a conversation with two veteran GOP lobbyists, and, like so many other conversations in Washington these days, the topic turned to the political environment and the air of uncertainty that has descended upon this town.

The American Military: At the Tipping Point

The U.S. military is in a crisis. Decades of underfunding and continuous employment have taken their toll. Just three of the U.S. Army’s 50 combat brigades and only half the Air Force’s fighters and bombers are fully ready for a major conflict with a serious adversary.

The American Military: It is not too small. Rather, its responsibilities are too many.

Military retrenchment is not popular in the Republican Party. But America’s coming financial infirmity may allow no other course.

Suitcases Full of Propaganda for the Digital Age

Nearly 30 years after the end of the Cold War, Russian efforts to undermine the transatlantic alliance represent a clear and present threat.

A National Crisis Needs a National Response

The drug epidemic is gripping America, with West Virginia one of the hardest-hit states. But no community is immune from the suffering.

The Virginia Bellwether

The stakes are high in Virginia, where the GOP is trying to win back the Governor’s mansion, and the Democrats are running against Donald Trump.

A View from Dubuque County, Iowa

Dubuque County does not neatly fit into the standard media picture of Trump Country. In a county with fewer than 70,000 total registered voters, Democrats hold a roughly 10,000 voter edge over Republicans in terms of registration.

A View from Northampton County, Pennsylvania

At first glance, Northampton County, Pennsylvania might not seem like “Trump Country.” Despite some remnants of the steel industry that once dominated the local economy, there are few obvious indicators of the Rust Belt settings that were at the heart of Donald Trump’s electoral triumph in 2016.

A View from Trumbull County, Ohio

Trumbull County is very much a working class microcosm of Ohio. To that end, perhaps the most important thing to know about presidential politics in the Buckeye State is that Ohioans always sell their 18 electoral votes to the highest bidder.

A View from Macomb County, Michigan

Macomb County has an interesting and important history in American politics. Located northeast of Wayne County, home of Detroit, Macomb was a destination beginning in the 1970s for many white blue-collar workers who were tied to the automobile industry.

A View from Kenosha County, Wisconsin

While Kenosha County has reflected the Republican trend, there is continuing Democratic support. Trump carried the county by less than 1,000 votes. By contrast, Barack Obama in 2012 had a vote margin of nearly 10,000. Notably lower voter turnout in 2016 helps explain the difference.

The “OT’s” … the Obama-Trump Counties

A chart of the 208 counties won by Donald Trump in 2016 after they were won by Barack Obama in 2012 & 2008.

Great Expectations

As Donald Trump reaches the six month mark of his presidency, the media predictably is focused almost solely on the short term. But Republicans need to look through a different lens and play a smarter long game if they are going to be successful.

Ripon Profile of Bill Cassidy

The physician and Louisiana Senator discusses his priorities on Capitol Hill and the challenge facing the residents of his home state that he is working to address.

A View from Dubuque County, Iowa

“Even with GOP control of the White House and Congress, they see little accomplished.”

Dubuque County does not neatly fit into the standard media picture of Trump Country.

In a county with fewer than 70,000 total registered voters, Democrats hold a roughly 10,000 voter edge over Republicans in terms of registration.  Over the past two-plus decades, the County has diversified its economy and experienced significant development of a once-run down industrial core.

With an enviable unemployment rate, and education and income levels at or near national medians, Dubuque County does not display the economic and social factors commonly pointed to as Trump’s recipe for electoral success.  But, like many other parts of the country, there was, and remains, a strong sense of frustration and dissatisfaction at the prevailing political and social climate.

While Senator Ted Cruz won the statewide Republican caucus vote in Iowa, President Trump did eke out a close victory over Senator Marco Rubio in Dubuque County during the Caucuses.  In the general election, Trump carried both the heavily Democratic-leaning City of Dubuque as well as the rural areas of Dubuque County.  Trump swamped Hillary Clinton in the rural areas of the county easily outpacing Mitt Romney’s results in 2012.  Clinton underperformed compared to President Obama in the city’s downtown working class precincts (which also are home to the bulk of the county’s minority population).

To get a better sense of what voters in Dubuque are thinking about the early months of the Trump Administration, and to see what might be on the horizon for the 2018 midterm election and beyond, I spoke with a number of voters from across the political spectrum in Dubuque County.

In conversations, the policy areas most pressing to voters here are things such as health care, the economy and jobs, security, fiscal policy, and social welfare programs.

The issues that come up time and again in discussions with voters are not the various palace intrigues regarding the inner workings of the White House, or even the high profile issues such as the various investigations into Russian interference in the election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign. Many Dubuquers follow these issues, to be sure. But in conversations, the policy areas most pressing to voters here are things such as health care, the economy and jobs, security, fiscal policy, and social welfare programs.  There is anxiety and frustration that such issues are not being tackled and are instead being obscured.

For many Republicans, the frustration is that now, even with GOP control of the White House and Congress, they see little accomplished.  Many note a decided lack of unity among Republicans in Washington.  For many Dubuque Democrats, the election loss remains a bitter pill, and this is compounded in their eyes by the policies being pursued by Trump and the GOP Congress, including the dismantling of policies on health care and the environment.  For others, the frustration with politics is less rooted in party and more with how the system doesn’t adequately reflect the wishes and needs of the electorate.  It is not uncommon to hear criticism from voters across the political spectrum of government as elite, out-of-touch, or part of a system divorced from the needs and experience of the people and too beholden to special interests.

A common theme among many voters is a desire for policy results, and for a government which sees the challenges facing the country and which addresses them constructively and effectively.  Some see political divisions expanding and forming an obstacle to effective governance.  Such sentiment comes from all sides.  As one Republican Trump supporter put it to me, “we have lost the ability to negotiate with each other to address the needs of the people.”  Independents often echo this desire most strongly.

There is anxiety and frustration that such issues are not being tackled and are instead being obscured.

While many approve of President Trump ‘shaking things up,’ others here, including some Republicans, worry that not much will change and that the rocky start to the new White House makes Washington’s focusing on issues and policy more difficult.  Many Republicans place the blame for the rocky start on the media or on political opponents of the president who seek their own gain by sowing division.  Others admit that part of the problem rests with the administration.  As one voter remarked, “I support the President’s policies of a common sense travel ban and the wall, but I just wish that they would take his Twitter account away from him.”

The President’s outspokenness is both a strength and liability to many here.  For his critics, the concern is often that his demeanor and approach are ill-suited for the presidency.  For his staunchest supporters it is only by being outspoken and unrestrained that President Trump can change the political and economic status quo.  Others see his actions as simply counter-productive.

Failing to heed the expectation and desire of many Dubuque voters for a more results-oriented politics may be a recipe for electoral defeat here in this pivotal county in Northeast Iowa in 2018 and beyond.  Without results, high levels of frustration and anxiety will only continue.

Christopher B. Budzisz is Associate Professor of Politics at Loras College and the Director of the Loras College Poll.