Ripon Forum


Vol. 51, No. 3

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In this edition

Earlier this year, I was having a conversation with two veteran GOP lobbyists, and, like so many other conversations in Washington these days, the topic turned to the political environment and the air of uncertainty that has descended upon this town.

The American Military: At the Tipping Point

The U.S. military is in a crisis. Decades of underfunding and continuous employment have taken their toll. Just three of the U.S. Army’s 50 combat brigades and only half the Air Force’s fighters and bombers are fully ready for a major conflict with a serious adversary.

The American Military: It is not too small. Rather, its responsibilities are too many.

Military retrenchment is not popular in the Republican Party. But America’s coming financial infirmity may allow no other course.

Suitcases Full of Propaganda for the Digital Age

Nearly 30 years after the end of the Cold War, Russian efforts to undermine the transatlantic alliance represent a clear and present threat.

A National Crisis Needs a National Response

The drug epidemic is gripping America, with West Virginia one of the hardest-hit states. But no community is immune from the suffering.

The Virginia Bellwether

The stakes are high in Virginia, where the GOP is trying to win back the Governor’s mansion, and the Democrats are running against Donald Trump.

A View from Dubuque County, Iowa

Dubuque County does not neatly fit into the standard media picture of Trump Country. In a county with fewer than 70,000 total registered voters, Democrats hold a roughly 10,000 voter edge over Republicans in terms of registration.

A View from Northampton County, Pennsylvania

At first glance, Northampton County, Pennsylvania might not seem like “Trump Country.” Despite some remnants of the steel industry that once dominated the local economy, there are few obvious indicators of the Rust Belt settings that were at the heart of Donald Trump’s electoral triumph in 2016.

A View from Trumbull County, Ohio

Trumbull County is very much a working class microcosm of Ohio. To that end, perhaps the most important thing to know about presidential politics in the Buckeye State is that Ohioans always sell their 18 electoral votes to the highest bidder.

A View from Macomb County, Michigan

Macomb County has an interesting and important history in American politics. Located northeast of Wayne County, home of Detroit, Macomb was a destination beginning in the 1970s for many white blue-collar workers who were tied to the automobile industry.

A View from Kenosha County, Wisconsin

While Kenosha County has reflected the Republican trend, there is continuing Democratic support. Trump carried the county by less than 1,000 votes. By contrast, Barack Obama in 2012 had a vote margin of nearly 10,000. Notably lower voter turnout in 2016 helps explain the difference.

The “OT’s” … the Obama-Trump Counties

A chart of the 208 counties won by Donald Trump in 2016 after they were won by Barack Obama in 2012 & 2008.

Great Expectations

As Donald Trump reaches the six month mark of his presidency, the media predictably is focused almost solely on the short term. But Republicans need to look through a different lens and play a smarter long game if they are going to be successful.

Ripon Profile of Bill Cassidy

The physician and Louisiana Senator discusses his priorities on Capitol Hill and the challenge facing the residents of his home state that he is working to address.

A View from Kenosha County, Wisconsin

“While Kenosha County has reflected the Republican trend, there is continuing Democratic support.”

The Republican Party has become dominant in Wisconsin, with promising opportunities for the future.

Viewed from more local perspectives, however, the picture becomes a more mixed, complex tapestry. The Democratic Party has significant challenges, but it also has opportunities. Kenosha County in Southeast Wisconsin reflects both trends.

Donald Trump won the state in 2016, against informed predictions and polling evidence. In the same election, incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson beat back former Senator Russ Feingold, whom he defeated in 2010. Southeast Wisconsin reflects state and national trends. President Trump’s approval ratings continue to be relatively low. However, polls generally underestimated his true support in 2016.

Republican Governor Scott Walker has been elected and reelected, and survived a bitter recall effort. The Republican Party controls the state legislature.

President Trump’s approval ratings continue to be relatively low. However, polls generally underestimated his true support in 2016.

Republican U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan represents Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, which includes Kenosha, after succeeding Republican Mark Neumann in early 1999. Previously, the seat was held for two decades by Democrat Les Aspin, a respected defense policy analyst. Democrat Peter Barca briefly succeeded Aspin in the House.

While Kenosha County has reflected the Republican trend, there is continuing Democratic support. Trump carried the county by less than 1,000 votes. By contrast, Barack Obama in 2012 had a vote margin of nearly 10,000. Notably lower voter turnout in 2016 helps explain the difference.

Kenosha County Executive Jim Kreuser and Kenosha Mayor John Antaramian served as Democrats in the State Assembly. Long-time Democratic State Senator Bob Wirch emphasizes his labor union background, and survived an aggressive 2010 Republican campaign. The four Kenosha Assembly seats are equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, with Peter Barca among the former.

Kenosha was highlighted in the 2016 presidential primary campaign. Senator Bernie Sanders spoke at Carthage College in Kenosha on March 30, 2016, to an overflow crowd. Along with the college community, the audience comprised a large number of working people. Sanders won the primary.  The selection of Kenosha as the location for his speech reflects the historic labor union strength in the area, especially the United Auto Workers (UAW).

Likewise, history was a factor in the visit of President Donald Trump to Snap-on Tools in Kenosha on April 18, 2017. During the visit, he announced an executive order to “buy American, hire American.” Snap-on is rightly viewed as an American institution, emphasizing quality workmanship, though today the company is global in hiring, production and sales.

Kenosha has successfully adjusted to the decline of manufacturing jobs, attracting new residents and new businesses, especially related to transportation and storage. New Amazon and Uline facilities reflect this. Kenosha County is closely integrated with the Chicago regional economy.

History was a factor in the visit of President Donald Trump to Snap-on Tools in Kenosha on April 18, 2017.

Wisconsin historically has been in the forefront of labor reform. In 1865, a local chapter of the Molders Union was formed in Milwaukee. In 1886, there was substantial labor protest across the nation in support of the eight-hour workday. Milwaukee had one of the most sizable such efforts. In 1933, UAW workers sat down on the job at Nash Motors in Kenosha, four years before a similar protest and infamous violent repression of workers at the General Motors plant in Flint, Michigan.

The UAW from the start emphasized health care, and today that is an important political issue at the local and state as well as national levels. Speaker Ryan has struggled to achieve passage of a Republican alternative to the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act. Ohio resident David Yankovich has received publicity by announcing a move to Kenosha to join other Democrats planning to run against Ryan in 2018. Yankovich is emphasizing health care reform.

Wisconsin opinion appears congruent with nationwide polls indicating President Trump has a relatively low approval rating. However, the 2016 election demonstrated polling errors dramatically. In 2020, Wisconsin likely will remain a battleground state.

Arthur I. Cyr is the A.W. and Mary Margaret Clausen Distinguished Professor of Political Economy and World Business, and Director of the Clausen Center for World Business, at Carthage College