Ripon Forum


Vol. 52, No. 5

View Print Edition

In this edition

In this special pre-election edition, the Forum examines some of the accomplishments in Congress over the past two years, and some of the issues people may be thinking about when they vote. 

PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT

After years of slow growth and a lack of confidence, Americans asked for a better way. From cutting taxing to strengthing our national defense, the 115th Congress has shown that we found it.

How We Rebuilt America’s Military

The bipartisan budget agreement passed earlier this year has enabled us to deliver what we’ve long promised: making sure our troops have the training and equipment they need.

The State of the Small Business Economy

In August, the NFIB Optimism Index soared to a record high of 108.8, breaking the 1983 record of 108 that occurred during the Administration of President Reagan.

America is Building Things Again

The U.S. has gained back 15,000 manufacturing establishments and more than a million manufacturing jobs, with 278,000 of those jobs coming in the past year alone.

A View from Dubuque, Iowa

“The current picture of Iowa and Dubuque is that it is not yet firmly Trump Country,” reports the Professor from Loras College and the Director of the Loras College Poll.

A View from Northampton County

“Nothstein’s allegiance to Trump appears to be more of a burden than a boost as the mid-terms draw near,” writes the Muhlenberg College Professor about the local GOP candidate for Congress.

A View from Trumbull County, Ohio

“Trump’s single greatest achievement is his tearing up of NAFTA,” writes the Professor from Youngstown State University.

A View from Macomb County

“Macomb residents are sticking with President Trump,” write the professors from Oakland University in Michigan.

A View from Kenosha County

“Kenosha County reflects both traditional Democratic Party roots and recent Republican strength,” writes the Professor & Director of the Clausen Center for World Business at Carthage College.

Leveling the Playing Field with China

China’s wealth has grown significantly in recent decades, yet some of its trade practices remain rooted in its past as a fairly poor country.

Ripon Profile of Joni Ernst

The Senator from Iowa discusses some of the accomplishments of her first four years in office, and some of the challenges she plans to continue working on next year.

A View from Trumbull County, Ohio

“Trump’s single greatest achievement is his tearing up of NAFTA.“

Although Trumbull County is a Democratic Party stronghold in congressional politics, presidential elections are not about partisan loyalty in this area.

U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13), who represents most of the county and who challenged Nancy Pelosi for leadership of the House Democratic Caucus in 2017, will easily coast to re-election against his Republican challenger.  Similarly, U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown can also count on getting the Trumbull County vote in his bid for re-election this year.

President Trump, on the other hand, appears to be holding the same high level of support in this county that he got in 2016. His public approval has dipped here, but only marginally. The question, then, is what accounts for Trump’s popularity in this county?

The simple answer is that they like what he is doing.

At a recent rally in the neighboring Rust Belt state of Indiana, President Trump declared mission accomplished in his goal of making America great again. He said his slogan would now be, “Keep America Great.” He cited strong economic numbers, trillions of dollars of added wealth, and low unemployment.

What many people in other parts of the country see as a frightening trade war, Trumbull County voters see as a Herculean fight for America’s national interests.

Accomplishments like these are music to the ears of the typical grass roots, working class, Democratic voter in the Rust Belt who put the President into office in 2016. It not only means that they have jobs and a feeling of job security, but that the policies set forth by the President are providing them with a path back to the America they and their parents once knew.

Resonating most of all are Trump’s protectionist trade policies. What many people in other parts of the country see as a frightening trade war, Trumbull County voters see as a Herculean fight for America’s national interests against the forces of greed and the do-gooders who expect Americans to make sacrifices without getting anything back in return.

A very significant industry in this county is steel.  Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are seen as a step in the right direction to bring back manufacturing jobs to this area.  While Trump’s promise at the Youngstown airport in 2016 to restore the city’s abandoned steel mills has not happened and probably never will, people in Trumbull County see successes in similar cities that give them hope that the future will be bright here, too.  After Trump’s announcement of the 25 percent tariff on imported steel, the steel factory in Granite City, Illinois that was closed in 2015 has reopened, bringing over 500 laid-off workers back to work.

Perhaps what is seen here in Trumbull County as Trump’s single greatest achievement is his tearing up of NAFTA and replacing it with the USCMA. The most locally significant provision in the new agreement is the one pertaining to the auto industry.  It requires autoworkers to be paid $16 an hour. This will likely bring more jobs back to the U.S. from Mexico, because Mexican auto plants rarely pay more than $5 an hour. The local Chevy Cruze plant in Lordstown, Ohio closed two of its shifts last year and laid off hundreds of workers. People in Trumbull County now feel hopeful that jobs will return as a result of Trump’s new agreement with our North American trading partners.

Trumbull County will remain blue in November.  But Trump has made a dent in this longtime Democratic stronghold.

Ron Verb, the local radio talk show host on WKBN, has been one of Trump’s most unflinching supporters.  He, like many in this county who feel the same way, supported Barack Obama in the previous elections. He now feels utterly disappointed in the Democratic Party and most particularly with the local representatives to Congress who have been longtime opponents of NAFTA.  He thinks they say the right things just to get votes but never actually take steps to replace NAFTA with an agreement that protects Ohio’s interests. Every day on his radio show, Verb praises Trump for doing in two years what our career politicians have failed to do in decades.

Does this mean that Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown – who, between them, have been representing this area and Ohio in Washington for over four decades — are in trouble this year because of their ineffectual opposition to NAFTA?  No – the roots of Democratic politics run too deep here.  For that reason, Trumbull County will remain blue in November.  But Trump has made a dent in this longtime Democratic stronghold.

And if his policies continue bearing fruit, and if the economic rebirth occurring in cities like Granite City occurs in communities like Lordstown that are closer to home, then I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans running for the House and Senate get more than a passing glance by county voters in 2020.

Adam L. Fuller, Ph.D, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Politics & International Relations at Youngstown State University.  To read Professor Fuller’s analysis of the political environment in Trumbull County that appeared in the June 2017 edition of the Forum, please click here.