Most all of the early political and policy discussions have been, and will continue to be, focused on the Presidential Primaries. As is often the case in past presidential elections without an incumbent running for reelection, the “out” party candidates have been largely focused on what is wrong with the policies of the current Administration. Meanwhile, the “in” party candidates are trying to ride that tight-rope of not running for a third term of an unpopular President without totally disconnecting with that Party’s base voters – in other words – new and improved.
Once the nomination process is set, however, expect two things to happen. First, with no incumbent President running for reelection, the 2016 Presidential Election will turn from a debate about problems with the current political and economic environment to one about the future. Second, as that shift occurs, both candidates and their parties will focus a significant amount of attention on winning the hearts and minds of middle class voters.
This survey, conducted for the Ripon Society, was designed to examine the political environment and to examine the voters’ views on tax and economic policies, placing a particular emphasis on the views of middle class voters – the true Republican base. As has been the case in virtually every national survey conducted by The Tarrance Group over the last three decades, this survey finds that seven-in-ten voters (70%) self-identify their economic class as “middle class”, and fifty four percent (54%) of voters as “white” middle class.
Dissatisfaction with Washington and the “direction of the country” is nothing new with the American electorate.
Not only will the presidential candidate who can build the best case that they hold the strongest principles and policies leading to a brighter economic future for these middle class voters have the best chance of winning in November, but this data shows that the Republicans in Congress can begin laying that groundwork in the battle for the middle class now, long before the presidential nomination process is in full swing and makes the transition to the future.
Political Environment and the Mood of the American Electorate
A lot has been written in recent months about the “angry voter” of the 2015-2016 election Cycle. Dissatisfaction with Washington and the “direction of the country” is nothing new with the American electorate. Whether Republicans or Democrats have controlled the White House, the Congress, or both, over sixty percent of voters have felt that the country was off on the wrong track for well over a decade. Indeed, voters are remarkably negative about the status quo and direction of the country, and those feelings have grown even more intense in recent years. A strong majority (70%) of voters think the country is on the “wrong track”, including an overwhelming majority of fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters who “strongly” believe the country is off on the wrong track.
It is also important to note this strongly held view about the country being on the wrong track is not strictly driven by partisanship. It is shared by an overwhelming number of Republicans (92%), Independents (77%), middle class voters (71%), and even conservative Democrats (57%). The intensity of these wrong track voters is further reinforced, in that, fifty-three percent (53%) believe that “time is running out” for the country to get going in the right direction.
Having policy proposals that could make a real difference in our Country’s direction and in the economic fortunes of middle class voters will be a tremendous asset in the coming election cycle. Therein lies one of the major hurtles the Democrats face in the upcoming election battles. The current leader of the Democratic Party, President Obama, has a majority job disapproval rating of fifty-one percent (51%), and the intensity on his job approval rating is at a 1.4 to 1 “strongly disapprove” negative ratio (46% strongly disapprove to 33% strongly approve). With middle class voters, President Obama’s disapproval number only gets worse and more intense. By forty-four percent (44%) to fifty-three percent (53%), middle class voters disapprove of the job the President is doing, and “strongly” disapprove by a net 15 points.
Having policy proposals that could make a real difference in our Country’s direction and in the economic fortunes of middle class voters will be a tremendous asset in the coming election cycle.
As with the voters’ concerns about the direction of the country, the President’s majority disapproval rating is not just held with Republicans. A majority of middle class voters (53%), white middle class (61%), and Independents (56%) also hold negative views of the President.
The Democratic nominee for President will face the challenging political calculus of needing to distance themselves from many of the President’s policies while also needing the votes of most, if not all, of the President’s strongest political supporters within the Democratic base. This will offer a real opportunity for Republicans to chart a path of proposing concepts that work without having to worry about walking a tightrope with a needed voter bloc that holds a much different view than the rest of the electorate.
This does not mean, however, that the path for the Republicans will be any easier in light of the decade long angst about the direction of the country and voter cynicism about Washington’s ability to truly address real problems with effective solutions. Voters are also negative in general about solutions from the federal government and hold mixed views on government action. More than two-in-three voters (68%) think the federal government is part of the problem for the challenges facing their family. In addition, a strong majority of voters (59%) thinks that the government would not be able to effectively implement a solution to a major problem.
Despite these attitudes, however, voters have not totally given up. Fully sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters think that the federal government is not doing enough to solve the problems facing the country versus just fifteen percent of voters (15%) who think the government is doing too much and twelve percent of voters (12%) who think the government is doing the right amount.
Clearly, simple sloganeering like “Hope and Change” is not going to meet the smell test with voters this political season. The current political environment has voters thinking the federal government is an ineffective mess that is causing more harm than good. However, they still want this government to be doing more . . . more that works . . . and works for them.
Nowhere is this truer than with the middle class, seventy percent (70%) of whom believe the federal government is part of the problem, not part of the solution. In addition, sixty percent (60%) of middle class voters believe that the government would not be able to effectively implement a solution to a major problem (53% “strongly” hold that position). As with the broader electorate, sixty-nine percent (69%) of middle class voters feel that the federal government is not doing enough to solve the problems facing the country. Compounding this, the middle class also has deeply held feelings that the next generation will not do as well as their generation (70%), moving the American Dream further from their reach. Seventy-five percent (75%) believe that with the current federal government solutions, the rich get the benefits, the poor get the programs, and the middle class get the bill.
Simple sloganeering like “Hope and Change” is not going to meet the smell test with voters this political season.
So for the middle class in this election, the frustration runs deeper, as will the measurement they use in deciding where to cast their vote. They feel the country is, and has been, moving in the wrong direction. They are extremely negative about the current President and his policies, but are equally cynical about the ability of the federal government to effectively implement solutions that work, and truly question whether those solutions are aimed at making their lives better. To top it off, those solutions may be moving the American Dream further and further from their reach. There is a path for Republicans in the upcoming election, but it is not as simple as a few choice issue positions or creative slogans. It is about painting a full picture of where we want to take this country to build a better future, and more specifically build a stronger economic future for the middle class.
Digging into specific concerns, a strong majority (67%) of voters are very worried (24%) or somewhat worried (43%) that the United States will suffer another economic downturn over the next twelve months. Awareness of this level of economic anxiety should be an important consideration as proposals are put forward. Much of the electorate views policy debates in Washington through a lens of both discontent with the status quo and fear that the future will bring bad financial news for their family.
It should also be noted that just twenty-six percent (26%) of voters believe that the next generation will have a better quality of life while sixty-nine percent (69%) believe the next generation will not. In other words, the American Electorate truly questions whether the American Dream, a better life for our children and grandchildren, is still within reach.
Indeed, the economic issues that are important to middle class voters are the “kitchen table/pocketbook” issues on which Republicans should have the advantage. The top issues selected were creating jobs (20%), reducing the cost of health care (15%), reducing the deficit (14%), and cutting taxes (11%). These are all issues on which a political party who is united on the need for fiscal responsibility should be able to make a compelling case for improvement to voters.
Finally, one of the biggest surprises within the data considering the cynicism of the voters about Washington and the direction of the country was the attention level of the voters. The political environment as we begin 2016 finds many voters enthusiastic about having a voice in the upcoming elections, but wary about both the status quo and their economic future.
Overall, seventy percent (70%) of voters say that they are “extremely likely” to vote, a level of intensity often not seen, even in the final weeks before the election. Republicans (72%) and middle class voters (73%) are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats (68%) or lower income voters (57%). While the generic Congressional ballot is a statistical tie (42% GOP/43% DEM) and partisans are at parity in their current level of support for their own party, there are real opportunities for Republicans to make gains. Republicans have a slight edge with middle class voters (44% GOP/42% DEM), and a solid lead with white middle class voters (52% GOP/36% DEM). Additionally, fourteen percent (14%) of middle class voters are undecided and Republicans enjoy strong support from those voters whose top issue of economic concern is cutting taxes (66%) or reducing the deficit (61%). If Republicans can make a strong case that they have policies to get the country on an economic path that is both fairer for the middle class and provides more economic opportunities, there are real gains to be made.
Middle class voters
As noted earlier, our national survey work has consistently found that around seven-in-ten likely voters self-identify as middle class. The size of this group makes it one of the largest and broadest demographic groups in the electorate. While a majority of middle class voters are white, there are a notable number of middle class voters who are African Americans (8%) or Hispanics (6%). In the current economic and political environment, there are a significant number of middle class voters whose first test of a policy will be its economic impact on them. This mindset provides a valuable opportunity for Republicans to increase their support among minority voters. These middle class minority voters will be willing to consider Republican policies and candidates if they are convinced that these policies will have a positive impact on their personal finances.
In the current economic and political environment, there are a significant number of middle class voters whose first test of a policy will be its economic impact on them.
A clear sign of the electoral gains to be made with these voters is seen on the generic Congressional ballot. On this ballot test, almost one quarter (22%) of middle class African American voters are either already voting GOP (13%) or undecided (9%). Getting to just twenty percent support among African Americans would be more than three times the amount of support African American voters gave Republican Congressional candidates in 2008.
For Hispanics, forty-five percent (45%) of middle class Hispanic voters are either already supporting the GOP (21%) or are undecided (24%). This is an impressive amount of openness to persuasion considering much of the political chatter in 2015 was consumed by a leading GOP Presidential candidate making inflammatory statements about Mexican immigrants. Middle class Hispanic voters are open to giving Republican candidates a chance to make their case, especially on economic issues.
As seen throughout this analysis, middle class voters of all races are anxious about the direction of the country, worried that the federal government has the tools and the skills to fix problems, and anxious about their personal economic situation. They want a government that will provide better opportunities and assuage their fears, but they are distrustful and skeptical that the government will be able to make positive changes.
Framing the debate on fiscal issues
The best place to start at solving this problem is to set the terms of the debate on the fiscal issues facing the country. For example, Speaker Ryan has already taken a big step in that direction by framing the economic goal of his speakership as creating greater upward mobility in our society. That economic goal receives seventy-nine percent (79%) agreement with the total electorate and middle class, seventy-seven percent (77%) with Republicans voters, and grows to eighty-one percent (81%) with middle class whites and eighty-two percent (82%) with middle class African Americans.
As seen below, there is broad consensus among voters that a federal government that reins in its spending, embraces technology, promotes economic opportunity, reforms welfare, and treats the middle class better would be a significant improvement over our current federal government.
(For more charts from The Ripon Society national survey, please click here.)
Other statements tested like the benefits of cutting the corporate tax rate (56% agree) and support for a health care reform with lower costs but fewer insured (52% agree) have majority agreement, but far less broad support. Cutting the corporate tax rate and this type of health care reform concept test well with base Republican voters, but other voters do not yet agree with these assertions and are less effective in framing the debate in a way that allows us to add the brush strokes of specific economic and tax issues.
While selling optimism and policies that allow economic mobility will be crucial over the next year in framing our economic and tax policies, we should always be mindful that many voters begin in a very pessimistic place about the economic future of the country, and we have to address their concerns about the fading American Dream with solid goals and real solutions.
We should always be mindful that many voters begin in a very pessimistic place about the economic future of the country, and we have to address their concerns about the fading American Dream with solid goals and real solutions.
Voters will give positive consideration to policies that are aimed to achieve goals with which they agree. Laying the groundwork of informing voters of your philosophy and your intent is as important as the specifics of any fiscal policy. In fact, many voters will not delve into the minute details of policy and will instead make a decision about this policy based on their view of the intent behind the proposal.
In testing a variety of tax reform proposals and budget policy reform proposals, the strongest support came for tax policies aimed at making the tax system fairer and flatter and for budget policies aimed at promoting targeted workforce development programs, focusing health policy spending on finding cures, and reviewing the utility of federal regulations. Voters clearly favor policies aimed at creating an economic environment where taxation is more equitable and understandable as well as a federal budgeting process aimed at maximizing economic opportunities and solving real problems.
Conclusions
Republicans have an extraordinary opportunity in 2016 to make a strong case to voters overall and especially to middle class voters that they are the party with the best fiscal and budget policies. Voters are highly dissatisfied with Washington and very anxious about their personal economic situation. However, while wary and distrustful of government, they still want a government that tries to take action.
It will be important to first lay the groundwork with voters of explaining the intent behind these policies. There is broad agreement among voters that a federal government that spends less, uses technology more effectively, promotes economic mobility, and treats the middle class more fairly is a federal government that most voters would strongly support. Policies that are clearly pursuing these goals will receive the support of voters.
Winning the hearts and minds of middle class voters will be an enormous help for Republicans. Winning the strong support of these voters will ensure a Presidential victory and will ensure that Republicans maintain control of Congress. Making an effective appeal to middle class voters will also ensure that Republicans achieve a level of support from minority voters not seen since at least 2008. The road to winning at the polls in November will run through the middle class and the road to winning with middle class voters runs through convincing them of your intention to make economic mobility a real possibility.
Ed Goeas is President & CEO and Brian Nienaber is a Vice President at The Tarrance Group, one of the most respected and successful Republican research and strategy firms in American politics today.
Methodology
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present these key findings from a national survey of likely voters nationwide. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of N=1000 registered likely voters. Responses to this survey were gathered December 12-16, 2015. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is ±3.1% in 19 of 20 cases.