Ripon Forum


Vol. 50, No. 3

View Print Edition

In this edition

“Why Trump Resonates.” When people see this headline on the cover, they may think it is an endorsement of Donald Trump. It’s not an endorsement. It’s an explanation. An explanation of how someone who displays so few of the personal qualities we look for in our leaders now finds himself the presumptive Republican nominee.

Why Trade Keeps America Strong and our Workers Employed

The benefits of free trade to our economy are proven and easily seen: small business expansion, job growth, wage increases, lower consumer prices, and an overall strengthening of the economy. But the overwhelming benefits of trade can also be tracked through the journey of tiny hay seeds planted in the fertile soil of Ellensburg, Washington.

Bad Trade Deals are Keeping Our Economy in Neutral

As President Obama prepares to leave office, his final legacy item — and quite possibly the final nail in the coffin of our free market — is the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, another bad trade deal that has left America’s economy stuck in neutral.

The Future of NATO

NATO is at a crossroads of identity and purpose. It can either rest on 19th century alliance rules, based on reaction and diminutive diplomacy, or it can create the destiny of the 21st.

The Scalia Election

The death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February led to deadlocks and compromises in some of the biggest cases of the term, highlighting the importance of his replacement on the Court.

WHY TRUMP RESONATES

Americans are ashamed of their government and ready to turn the tables on the governing class. Who better to shame Washington than someone who has no shame?

Tradition and Novelty in Mr. Trump’s Running Mate Selection

The 2016 GOP vice presidential candidate is uncertain, but the selection process will likely be unique even as it honors certain patterns.

Picking a VP: Why Rules Matter

The rules governing conventions have been used for political ends in the past. That is likely to continue in Cleveland, where the selection of the running mate will be critical this year.

Time for a New Start

As another Republican nomination process comes to an end, this constitutional attorney and GOP activist argues that it’s time to revisit the 40-year old tradition that dictates where the process begins.

Storm Clouds over Philadelphia

With some Republicans wringing their hands about the candidate they nominated, it’s worth noting that many Democrats are doing the same thing as the party gathers for their quadrennial convention.

From Reagan & Ford to Trump & the Reality Show: 40 Years of Republican Conventions

A brief summary of GOP Conventions over the past 40 years – the highs and lows and good and bad of each, and how they may compare to this year’s proceedings.

Ripon Profile of Susan Brooks

The Representative of the Fifth District of Indiana discusses her proudest achievement since coming to Congress and the advice she would give the 2016 Republican presidential nominee.

Tradition and Novelty in Mr. Trump’s Running Mate Selection

goldstjk_5x7 (3)

Recent vice presidential selections have blended tradition and novelty.  Presidential candidates usually follow similar selection procedures and criteria.  Yet each selection presents different options, in a different context, considered by a unique selector. These factors always introduce variation amidst continuity. The 2016 Republican vice presidential candidate remains uncertain but the selection process will probably be unique even as it honors certain patterns.

Vice presidential selection changed in 1976.  The move to presidential primaries and caucuses resolved presidential nominations earlier (although not on the Republican side that year) and created a pre-convention vice presidential selection period of weeks to months.  Intensive vice presidential vetting preceded the convention (including by President Gerald R. Ford in 1976) and most candidates engaged an experienced lawyer to scrutinize prospective running mates and report either to the presidential candidate or a small circle of trusted advisers.  As the second office became more important and as a vice-presidential debate became a standard campaign feature, most presidential candidates recognized that choosing a presidential running mate was politically wise.  Ticket-balancing diminished but did not disappear.

Recent Republican vice presidential selections have followed several patterns.  With one exception, Republican presidential candidates have chosen plausible presidents as their running mates.  These include Senator Bob Dole, Ambassador George H.W. Bush, Senator Dan Quayle, former Secretary (of HUD) Jack Kemp, former Secretary (of Defense) Dick Cheney, and Representative Paul Ryan.  The one exception was Senator John McCain’s choice of Governor Sarah Palin; with less than two years in high governmental office, her experience was far less than any running mate since Governor Spiro T. Agnew and she soon proved a campaign liability.  Other Republican vice presidential nominees have had considerable experience in high governmental positions: Bush (10), Quayle (12), Ryan (14), Cheney (16), Dole (16) and Kemp (22).

Republican presidential candidates who are D.C. outsiders always choose D.C. insiders.

Republican presidential candidates who are D.C. outsiders always choose D.C. insiders.  Thus Governors Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Mitt Romney chose George H.W. Bush, Cheney and Ryan respectively.  Not since 1948 has an outsider (Governor Tom Dewey) run with another outsider (Governor Earl Warren).

Republican vice presidential candidates generally are chosen in large part from, or to placate, the more conservative wing of the party.  That tendency holds true for every selection since 1976 except Bush who Reagan, the conservative icon of the 20th century, chose.  It also explains every selection from 1952 to 1976 except Henry Cabot Lodge, Richard M. Nixon’s 1960 choice at a time when Nixon’s conservative credentials were not contested.

Donald Trump, this year’s presumptive nominee, has followed past practice by engaging A.B. Culvahouse, a respected Republican lawyer, to again vet prospective running mates (although Trump’s process was somewhat erratic in initially suggesting that Dr. Ben Carson, then Corey Lewandowski, would be heavily involved in the process, decisions soon reversed).

In other respects, Trump faces challenges which may cause deviation from these past patterns.  Whereas few Republican luminaries have declined to be considered for the second spot in recent years, Governors John Kasich, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, and Rick Scott and Senators Marco Rubio and Rob Portman are among the otherwise plausible running mates who have come close to issuing Shermanesque statements this year.   Senator John Thune has publicly wondered whether being Trump’s running mate would be a good option for many potential candidates.   Trump accordingly starts off with some “A” and “B” listers apparently removing themselves from consideration.

As the first presumptive presidential nominee since Wendell Willkie in 1940 without experience holding public office, Trump, appears the consummate political outsider.

Whereas prior Republican nominees have reached out to opponents — Ford chose Dole partly based on Reagan’s recommendation, Reagan courted Ford and Bush, and Dole chose Kemp even after the latter endorsed Steve Forbes when Dole’s nomination was a done deal — Trump has publicly criticized leading Republicans and has made statements which many, including some vice-presidential possibilities, have denounced.

As the first presumptive presidential nominee since Wendell Willkie in 1940 without experience holding public office, Trump appears the consummate political outsider.  Past practice would suggest he would seek someone with experience in Congress and/or the national executive branch and who would compensate for his lack of a national security credential.

Trump has some apparent options, like former presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Governor Chris Christie, Governors Mary Fallin and Mike Pence, Senator Jeff Sessions, and perhaps Senators Tom Cotton and Joni Ernst, among others.  But Gingrich and Christie carry baggage,  Sessions has never been considered a national candidate, Ernst has less experience than any recent nominee other than Palin, Cotton just a touch more, and Fallin helps little with the national security imperative.

Whereas past nominees used the second spot to energize the right, Trump has critics among Senator Ted Cruz’s supporters but also among establishment Republicans.  The second spot will not mend all his fences.

The most unusual Republican presidential candidate in recent history thus faces a challenging context with constricted options, all of which may introduce even more novelty into 2016.

Joel K. Goldstein is the Vincent C. Immel Professor of Law at Saint Louis University School of Law.  He is also the author of The White House Vice Presidency: The Path to Significance, Mondale to Biden (Kansas, 2016).