As 2020 dawned in Northampton County on the far eastern edge of Pennsylvania, the center of American politics seemed far away from this region of the Keystone State. With impeachment proceedings dominating politics in Washington D.C., and the 2020 campaign being waged largely in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, Northampton County residents focused much of their attention on things like the high school wrestling scene and unusually mild winter weather rather than the ebbs and flows of the political world.
But as the year inches forward, the relative quiet of winter is sure to be replaced by the roar of a presidential election that is likely to be fought in Northampton County as intensely as any county in the nation. As one of the three counties in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania that flipped from supporting Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 to supporting Donald Trump in 2016, Northampton County is seen as a must hold for the President and a prime target for Democrats as they seek to flip the state blue again in 2020.
Since Donald Trump won Northampton County by about 4,000 votes in 2016, the track record for most of his fellow Republicans in the County has been nothing short of abysmal.
Since Donald Trump won Northampton County by about 4,000 votes, or roughly 4 percent of the 2016 electorate, the track record for most of his fellow Republicans in the County has been nothing short of abysmal. After losing control of county government in the 2017 elections, Republican candidates were trounced in Northampton County in the 2018 midterms. In those 2018 races, Democrats running for statewide office won in Northampton County by very large margins, with Governor Tom Wolf carrying the county by 16 percent and Senator Bob Casey winning Northampton by 10 percent. Perhaps most problematic for the President was that Democratic candidate Susan Wild carried Northampton County by 6percent on her way to victory in the 7th Congressional District race. The 7th District was created in a court ordered redistricting early in 2018, and Wild’s victory in essence flipped a district that had long been held by GOP moderate Charlie Dent. Wild joined the new Democratic majority in the House in voting in favor of impeachment of Trump in 2019.
Despite his party’s massive struggles in Northampton County since 2016, President Trump certainly has strengths and opportunities in the County that can be leveraged this November. Polling in the region shows continued strong support for the President among Republicans, and he certainly is poised to tap into that support as he tries for a repeat performance in the county in 2020. This asset for the President is moderately enhanced by a closing of the gap between Democrat and Republican registered voters in the county over the last three years. Since the 2016 election, Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ lead in registered voters in Northampton County by about 4,000 voters, so his very strong position among GOP identifiers has been intensified in terms of the breadth of the cohort. Finally, as the President attempts to ride his economic performance record to reelection, Northampton County may be fertile ground for such a pitch. The County has shared in the broader economic growth that has occurred during President Trump’s first three years in office, with employment levels, the housing market, and local economic performance all showing positive trends in Northampton County during the Trump presidency.
The County has shared in the broader economic growth that has occurred, with employment levels, the housing market, and local economic performance all showing positive trends.
The juxtaposition of Trump’s historic victory in Northampton County in 2016, and his party’s deep struggles since, raises questions about where the County stands as the general election draws nearer. There seems to be a path in 2020 where voters in Northampton County may vote to give President Trump another term as president while continuing to punish other Republicans in the region. Ironically, if the President is able to win reelection, it may doom GOP prospects for resurgence across Northampton County as the President’s party rarely gains strength in the second term of his Administration.
While there is significant uncertainty about the final verdict from Northampton County voters this November, one difference from the 2016 race is a definite: the Democratic presidential nominee will not ignore the region as Hillary Clinton largely did in the last presidential race. Thus residents of this hilly county along the Delaware River should prepare for a campaign like nothing they have ever seen.
Christopher P. Borick, Ph.D., is a Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. This is the third in a series of essays about Northampton County that Professor Borick has authored for the Forum since the 2016 election.